Wind and Solar Near Half of China's Capacity as Retired Batteries Fetch Premium Prices

Highlights

• Cumulative wind and solar capacity reaches 2.01 billion kW, nearly half of the national total
• Batteries from 125 retired buses sell at a 119.49% premium, fetching nearly 3 million yuan
• Largest single-unit 5 MW flywheel storage connected to grid, regulation precision exceeds 99.5%

Capacity: Wind and Solar Near Half, Coal's Share Falls Below 50% for First Time

The Global Energy Transition Report (2026), released on Nov 7, shows China has built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system. In the first half of this year, coal's share of China's power generation fell to 49.7%, dropping below 50% for the first time, as coal shifts from a primary power source to a backstop and system regulation source. As of the end of September 2026, China's cumulative wind and solar capacity reached 2.01 billion kW, including 1.31 billion kW of solar and 700 million kW of wind. New installations in the first nine months totaled about 170 million kW, and combined wind and solar capacity is now close to half of the country's total installed power generation capacity. Under its plan, China aims to push total wind and solar capacity past 2.8 billion kW by 2030.

Globally, renewable capacity grew 15.5% year on year to 5,149 GW by the end of last year, and renewables accounted for 33.8% of electricity generation, surpassing coal's 33.0% for the first time in a century. Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose 0.4% year on year in 2025 to 38.4 billion tons, the lowest increase since 2021. China's carbon emissions fell 0.5%, while US emissions rose 2.4%, making the US the largest source of global carbon emission growth. The report projects China's total energy investment will reach $940 billion in 2026, the highest in the world. (Source: IT Home)

China remains dominant in renewable energy technology, supplying 70% of the world's wind power equipment and 80% of its solar module equipment, helping drive down global wind and solar power costs by more than 60% and 80%, respectively. Long-term cost declines are also supported by data: between 2010 and 2024, total installed solar costs fell 87% to $708/kW, onshore wind costs fell 55% to $1,066/kW, and battery storage system costs dropped from $2,634/kWh to $197/kWh, a decline of 93%. (Source: IT Home)

Recycling Market: Retired Batteries Turn from Environmental Burden into Tradable Assets

The second batch of retired power battery disposal by Xiangyang Bus Group completed bidding on the Yangtze River Ecological Environment Rights Trading Platform on Nov 5. The batteries, from 125 retired new energy buses, were assessed at 6,310.05 yuan/ton and sold for 13,850 yuan/ton after 22 rounds of bidding, a premium of 119.49% and a total price of nearly 3 million yuan. Bus batteries are mainly lithium iron phosphate, and their recycling value depends largely on the economics of lithium extraction; battery-grade lithium carbonate prices swung widely between 138,000 and 200,000 yuan/ton in 2026. In July this year, retired batteries from Huangshi buses in Hubei also fetched a 106% premium on the same platform. (Source: IT Home)

The two cases point to the same trend: China's first large-scale batch of new energy buses is reaching the end of its 5- to 8-year battery life cycle. Institutions forecast that the theoretical volume of retired power batteries in China will exceed 1 million tons for the first time in 2026, and that the recycling industry's overall market size could approach 100 billion yuan by 2030. Hubei's layout has extended downstream: Yichang Brunp Recycling has built full-chain capacity to process 150,000 tons of retired batteries a year, Jingmen GEM consumes about 10% of the country's retired lithium batteries annually and recycled and dismantled more than 50,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2026. Since the Yangtze River Ecological Environment Rights Trading Platform launched in October 2025, its solid waste section has completed 366 transactions totaling 411,900 tons. (Source: IT Home)

Regulation Capacity: Flywheel Storage Fills Thermal Power's Frequency Regulation Gap

China's largest single-unit flywheel energy storage project was connected to the grid at Huaneng Lanzhou Thermal Power Company on Nov 6. The project uses a coordinated model of a 5 MW high-power flywheel plus a 0.5 MW inertia flywheel: the large flywheel handles large grid frequency deviations, while the small one stabilizes routine minor frequency fluctuations. Thermal power units equipped with dual flywheel storage have a frequency regulation response time of less than 100 milliseconds and regulation precision above 99.5%. The 5 MW flywheel now in operation is the largest single unit in China, with a regulation rate of 5 MW/second, storage capacity of 1,250 kWh, charge-discharge efficiency above 85%, and a cycle life of up to tens of millions of cycles. The project is led by Huaneng Gansu Company, with technology R&D by Xi'an Thermal Power Research Institute. Once operational, it will provide technical support for the safe and stable operation of the power grid in northwest China. (Source: IT Home)

After the capacity expansion phase, the next stage for the new energy industry depends more on the operating efficiency of existing assets: whether retired batteries can continue to sell at asset-level prices depends on the match between lithium prices and recycling capacity; the frequency regulation value of flywheel storage will depend on how quickly it can be replicated at more thermal power bases.